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Technology Predictions for 2011

There are a lot of predictions floating around for the new year. From
what I read most of them are pretty much more of the same "This will be
the year of the mobile and social networks" To that I say: "The year of
mobile has happened"

We have crossed the chasm and now more often than not you expect people to
have a connected device and to be plugged into the social media network.
It's a rarity that I find someone who doesn't have a Facebook profile. We
need *real* new predictions! Here are the new things changing the way we
live our life in 2011:

1) AppStore for your desktop
I think the first thing is an easy prediction - desktop computers are
going to start getting AppStores. We already know that Apple is working
on one. I don't think Microsoft is going to be far behind. The new
AppStore for Desktop is going to revolutionize curation, updates and
billing for desktop applications and I expect the desktop innovation to
spike up again in 2012.

2) Enterprise online identity and access management
Enterprises are buying into the Cloud. As they are getting systems like
SalesForce.com, Box.net, Freshbooks, DocuSign and moving their exchange to
the BPOS hosted solutions they are quickly finding out that access control
and identity management is a real headache.

My prediction is that in 2011 we are going to start seeing enterprise
adoption of online identity management tools with biggies like Microsoft
and Oracle offering a solution that integrates their directory services
and provides an OpenID or similar interface to them online.

3) Custom Built Enterprise Applications for Tablets
iPad is entering the mainstream, but its heavily tilted towards the
consumer problem space right now - e-mail, Internet access, some general
purpose apps and a lot of games. Companies are figuring out that iPads
and the like are very powerful devices that are also a lot easier to
support and build for.

Don't be surprised when by the end of 2011 your physician is carrying an
iPad instead of a clipboard. The delivery guy might also be using a
tablet instead of an antiquated devices that was probably based on the
original Palm.

4) Comcast (and others) is going to introduce a better cable appliance - a
small network computer

I have disconnected my cable over a year ago and never looked back.
Netflix, Hulu, CinemaNow all give me access to the shows that I want, at
the time that I want. They allow me to do ratings, see recommendations
and the most important things is: they are a pleasure to use. When I was
visiting my parents in Louisville Kentucky I remembered how much I hate
the slow, kludgy cable box. I will not re-connect my cable even they
lower the price. I just hate it! Unless of course they change their
strategy had create an excellent cable box that will be a pleasure to use.
How amazing would it be if instead of the current Comcast box you got a
Boxee with all the shows from the cable TV and HBO? That's worth thinking
about!

But they can do better: they can take a concept like Apple TV and lease
you a little computer that connects to the internet, does e-mails and
streams your shows. For a lot of people a leased computer with a
guaranteed internet connection is all they need. This could be really
breakthrough.

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